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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Advisory Number 4
2015-09-28 22:43:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 282043 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 70.2W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 70.2W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 70.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.7N 71.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 27.9N 72.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.3N 72.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 28.6N 73.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 30.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 33.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 38.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 70.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/HAYES
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Graphics
2015-09-28 16:55:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Sep 2015 14:52:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Sep 2015 14:54:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-09-28 16:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 281451 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015 Satellite imagery indicates that the depression's overall cloud pattern has become better organized since yesterday despite persistent north- northwesterly shear of about 20 kt. The exposed low-level center is located near the northwestern tip of a curved band over the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. However, satellite data indicate that the low- to mid-level centers have recently become more separated. Dvorak intensity estimates are a consensus T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Smoothing fixes over the last 12 hours yields an initial motion of 300/04, a little faster than before. The depression is embedded in low- to mid-level southeasterly flow around a ridge to its northeast, with northwesterly flow aloft. This synoptic pattern should only favor a slow northwestward motion for the next couple of days. After 48 hours, the cyclone should reach the western end of the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge and begin to respond to the southerly and southwesterly flow ahead of a baroclinic trough nearing the U.S. east coast. This change to the steering should result in a gradual northward turn with increasing forward speed. The new track forecast is a little left of the previous one at 48 hours and a little faster, close to a blend of the GFS and ECWMF model solutions. GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS model output indicates a continuation of moderately strong north-northwesterly shear over the cyclone for the next day or so. Even though other large-scale factors are generally conducive for intensification during this time, shear of this magnitude suggests that only slow intensification is possible. While the shear should decrease some by 36 hours, other environmental factors are not forecast to be as conducive and little further strengthening is indicated. Large-scale models depict the cyclone merging with a frontal zone offshore of the Mid-Atlantic or New England coasts by 96 hours, and the system is therefore shown to be post-tropical at that time. An alternate lower probability scenario is that the cyclone could race ahead of the frontal boundary and retain its tropical characteristics for a bit longer. The new intensity forecast is above the previous one through 24 hours and near the multi-model consensus but below the statistical-dynamical guidance after that time due to more reliance on the global models which show little further intensification. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 27.8N 69.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 28.1N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 28.5N 70.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 29.1N 71.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 29.6N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 32.0N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 37.7N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Depression ELEVEN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-09-28 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 28 the center of ELEVEN was located near 27.8, -69.6 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Public Advisory Number 3
2015-09-28 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 281450 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 69.6W ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 69.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression this afternoon. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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