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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Discussion Number 37
2015-09-27 16:59:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 271459 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 Ida is very disorganized this morning. Visible satellite images indicate that the circulation of the depression is becoming elongated from north to south, though the low-level center is still distinct. Deep convection is scattered and not organized, and this system is barely classifiable using Dvorak metrics. The initial intensity remains 25 kt. The cyclone is embedded in a dry atmosphere, which is likely the reason why convection is limited. In addition, the interaction with a cold front about 350 n mi to the north of Ida is causing the circulation to become stretched as described above. Since the frontal boundary is expected to move closer to Ida during the next day or so before stalling, it is possible that Ida could open up into a trough during that time. It is also possible that Ida could become a remnant low by then if organized deep convection does not return. Based on the negative factors for the tropical cyclone, prediction of when Ida becomes a remnant low and dissipates have been moved up 24 hours from the previous advisory, and these could occur much sooner than forecast. Ida has jogged a bit to the north recently, but a long-term motion is west-northwestward at about 5 kt. A turn to the west-southwest is expected later today, followed by a faster westward motion tomorrow and Tuesday as a low to mid-level ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. The track guidance has changed little this cycle, and only small changes were made to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 24.8N 48.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 24.4N 49.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 23.9N 51.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 23.8N 53.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 24.1N 55.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z 25.0N 59.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
2015-09-27 16:58:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 27 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 271458 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1500 UTC SUN SEP 27 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-27 16:58:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA IS POORLY ORGANIZED... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 27 the center of IDA was located near 24.8, -48.4 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Advisory Number 37
2015-09-27 16:57:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 27 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 271457 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1500 UTC SUN SEP 27 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 48.4W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 48.4W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 48.2W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.4N 49.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.9N 51.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.8N 53.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 24.1N 55.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 25.0N 59.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 48.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression IDA Graphics
2015-09-27 11:11:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Sep 2015 08:44:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Sep 2015 09:06:50 GMT
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