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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Graphics
2015-09-28 23:10:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Sep 2015 21:04:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Sep 2015 21:05:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-09-28 22:45:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 282045 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 500 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 The low-level center has become well exposed due to continued northwesterly shear of 20 kt or more, with the mid-level center displaced well to the southeast of the low-level center. Flight-level and SFMR-observed wind data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft showed that the maximum winds remain near 30 kt. This is also consistent with the latest Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB. The center of the depression has been moving well to the left of the previous track, with the initial motion estimated to be 270/05 kt. In addition to the more westward initial motion, there have been significant changes in the model guidance, with the latest ECMWF forecast taking the cyclone much farther south and west than the GFS in 3-5 days. This appears to be the result of enhanced mid-level ridging to the north of the cyclone in the ECMWF at that time frame. This has necessitated a significant southwestward shift of the official forecast, although for continuity the new NHC track does not take the cyclone as far to the southwest as the ECMWF. Given the large spread now seen in the dynamical track guidance, confidence in the track forecast is rather low. The strong shear over the system is likely to continue for at least the next 12-24 hours and given the large displacement between the low- and mid-level centers, no intensification is anticipated in the short term. The dynamical guidance indicates some relaxation of the shear in a day or two, so the official forecast shows the cyclone strengthening into a tropical storm later on Tuesday. This is close to the intensity model consensus through 48 hours, and a little below it thereafter. Given the large uncertainty in the track forecast, there is also uncertainty as to what kind of environment the cyclone will encounter during the forecast period, which also leads to low confidence in the official intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 27.5N 70.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 27.7N 71.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 27.9N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 28.3N 72.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 28.6N 73.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 30.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 33.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 38.5N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch/Hayes
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2015-09-28 22:45:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 282045 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 7(21) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 6(19) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression ELEVEN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-09-28 22:44:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT THIS TIME... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 the center of ELEVEN was located near 27.5, -70.2 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Public Advisory Number 4
2015-09-28 22:44:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 282044 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 500 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 ...DEPRESSION SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT THIS TIME... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 70.2W ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 70.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected over the next day or two. Reports from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected overnight, but the depression could become a tropical storm on Tuesday. The Air Force plane measured a minimum central pressure of 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Hayes
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