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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2015-09-28 04:38:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 280238 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0300 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Tropical Depression ELEVEN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-09-28 04:38:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 27 the center of ELEVEN was located near 27.5, -68.7 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Public Advisory Number 1
2015-09-28 04:38:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 280237 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 68.7W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 68.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A west-northwestward or northwestward drift is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Advisory Number 1
2015-09-28 04:38:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 280237 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0300 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 68.7W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 68.7W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 68.6W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.7N 69.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.9N 69.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.2N 70.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 28.8N 70.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.0N 71.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 68.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression IDA Graphics
2015-09-27 17:11:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Sep 2015 15:01:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Sep 2015 15:06:48 GMT
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