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Tropical Depression IDA Graphics
2015-09-27 05:11:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Sep 2015 02:32:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Sep 2015 03:06:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Discussion Number 35
2015-09-27 04:34:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 270234 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2015 Deep convection again pulsed near and to the east of the center of Ida this evening, but is now waning as shear of around 20 kt continues over the cyclone. The most recent ASCAT missed Ida, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt based on persistence. The statistical models continue to suggest that Ida will intensify later in the forecast period, while the GFS and ECMWF show the circulation weakening and eventually elongating and dissipating by day 5 as a front impinges on Ida from the north. The NHC forecast continues to follow the solution of the global models given that the cyclone is currently embedded in a dry environment with moderate shear. It would also not be surprising if Ida were to dissipate sooner than forecast. The initial motion has been to the left of and slower than the previous advisory, and is estimated at 285/04. A continued bend of Ida's track toward the left is forecast as the shallow cyclone comes under the influence of an amplifying low-level ridge to the north. Much of the guidance has trended to the left and faster this cycle, and given the change in the initial motion and the trend in the guidance, the new NHC track is faster and about a half degree south of the previous one. The NHC forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF through 48 hours and not far from the GFS after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 24.3N 47.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 24.3N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 23.8N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 23.2N 50.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 22.8N 53.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 23.2N 57.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 23.5N 60.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Depression IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-27 04:32:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 26 the center of IDA was located near 24.3, -47.4 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression IDA Public Advisory Number 35
2015-09-27 04:32:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 270231 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2015 ...IDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 47.4W ABOUT 1095 MI...1760 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 47.4 West. Ida is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the west is forecast tonight, followed by a turn toward the west- southwest and an increase in forward speed Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Advisory Number 35
2015-09-27 04:31:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 27 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 270231 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0300 UTC SUN SEP 27 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 47.4W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 47.4W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 47.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 24.3N 48.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.8N 49.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.2N 50.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.8N 53.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.2N 57.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 23.5N 60.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 47.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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