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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 1
2015-10-09 16:49:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 09 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 091449 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 09 2015 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 132.0W ABOUT 1670 MI...2685 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1670 MI...2685 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 132.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the depression could become a hurricane on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2015-10-09 16:49:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 09 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 091449 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 1500 UTC FRI OCT 09 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 10(26) 4(30) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 20(43) 7(50) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 4(20) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2015-10-09 16:48:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 09 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 091448 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 1500 UTC FRI OCT 09 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 132.0W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 132.0W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 131.5W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 11.3N 133.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 11.7N 136.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 12.0N 138.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 12.2N 140.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 12.8N 143.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 14.5N 145.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 17.0N 144.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 132.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression MARTY Graphics
2015-10-01 04:53:17| Tropical Depression LIDIA
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2015 02:36:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2015 02:52:26 GMT
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Tropical Depression MARTY Forecast Discussion Number 18
2015-10-01 04:35:50| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
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