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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2015-10-09 22:37:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 092037 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20(25) 10(35) 2(37) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 19(43) 8(51) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 3(18) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2015-10-09 22:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 092036 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 133.5W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 133.5W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 132.9W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 11.1N 135.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 11.4N 137.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 11.6N 140.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 11.8N 141.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 12.5N 144.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 14.3N 144.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 17.3N 143.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 133.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-10-09 16:53:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 09 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 091453 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 09 2015 Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure in the far southwestern portion of the eastern Pacific has become better organized. Curved banding features have increased, along with a growing area of deep convection near the center. Thus the system is declared a tropical depression, the 18th of the season. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt using the Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The minimum pressure is 1008 mb on the basis of buoy 43535 near the depression, which reported 1009 mb a couple of hours ago. The cyclone is expected to be in a favorable environment for strengthening for the next few days, with low wind shear, very warm waters and high mid-level moisture. Thus steady intensification is forecast until early next week. Thereafter, an increase in southwesterly shear and some cooler waters should cause the cyclone to weaken some by day 5. The official intensity prediction is on the high side of the intensity guidance, a reflection of both the conducive environment and the low bias of the guidance during this season. It would not be surprising if the cyclone intensified more than shown here given the large-scale environment, but timing this is not possible at this time. The depression is moving westward at about 12 kt. This general motion is expected for the next 2-3 days while it remains under the influence of the subtropical ridge located over the eastern and central Pacific. This pattern is expected to change quickly after day 3 when a mid-latitude trough erodes the ridge, causing the cyclone to recurve well east of the Hawaiian Islands. For a first forecast, the guidance is in rather good agreement, and the official forecast is close to the overall consensus, with a bit more weight on the ECMWF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 11.1N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 11.3N 133.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 11.7N 136.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 12.0N 138.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 12.2N 140.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 12.8N 143.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 14.5N 145.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 17.0N 144.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Graphics
2015-10-09 16:52:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Oct 2015 14:52:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Oct 2015 14:50:50 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E (EP3/EP182015)
2015-10-09 16:49:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 the center of EIGHTEEN-E was located near 11.1, -132.0 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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