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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2015-09-28 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 281450 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1500 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Advisory Number 3
2015-09-28 16:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 281450 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1500 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 69.6W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 69.6W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 69.1W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.1N 70.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.5N 70.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.1N 71.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.6N 72.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 32.0N 72.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 37.7N 72.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 69.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Graphics
2015-09-28 10:55:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Sep 2015 08:52:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Sep 2015 08:54:50 GMT
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eleven
Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-09-28 10:53:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 280852 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015 Shortwave and enhanced BD-Curve infrared imagery show little change in the depression's cloud pattern this morning. Recently, however, a few bursts of deep convection are beginning to develop near the surface center. Subjective intensity estimates remain unchanged from the previous advisory as does the initial intensity of 30 kt. UW-CIMSS shear product and the SHIPS model both indicate 10-20 kt of northwesterly shear generated by a high amplitude upper-level ridge extending northward over the western Atlantic from the western Caribbean. Large-scale models show this upper-wind pattern persisting through day 3, which should inhibit any significant strengthening. Afterward, increasing southwesterly shear is expected to spread over the eastern seaboard and extreme western Atlantic waters in response to a deep-layer mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. Despite a rather harsh forecast upper-wind environment, the IVCN intensity consensus model shows slight strengthening to a tropical storm in 24 hours. Beyond the 96 hour period, the global models indicate either dissipation or the cyclone quickly becoming absorbed by the aforementioned baroclinic system. The official forecast is based on the IVCN consensus and indicates the cyclone merging with the frontal system in 5 days. The depression's center has been a bit difficult to find this morning, and has been moving erratically, drifting westward, or 275/2 kt. The cyclone should turn toward the west-northwest later today and continue in this general direction for a couple of days due to high pressure extending over the western Atlantic. After that time, a northward turn is forecast with an increase in forward speed around day 3 in response to the above mentioned frontal system approaching the east coast of the U.S. The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the left of the previous forecast and sides with the TVCX multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 27.4N 68.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 27.6N 69.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 28.0N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 28.5N 70.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 29.2N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 31.2N 72.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 36.2N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 03/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Depression ELEVEN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-09-28 10:52:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION POORLY ORGANIZED... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 28 the center of ELEVEN was located near 27.3, -68.9 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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