je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Discussion Number 36
2015-09-27 10:43:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 270843 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 Since the larger convective burst late yesterday afternoon, Ida has only produced a few small areas of showers and thunderstorms overnight. Satellite images also suggest that the center has become somewhat less defined over the past 24 hours. Based on the decrease in organization, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 25 kt, which is in agreement with the latest Dvorak current intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB. Ida is currently in an environment of moderate westerly shear and dry mid-level air, and little change in strength is anticipated during the next few days. By 72 hours, Ida is forecast to encounter strong upper-level northerly winds, which should cause the system to finally degenerate to a remnant low, however, it would not be surprising if this occurred sooner. The initial motion estimate is 270/4. Ida is forecast to turn west-southwestward at a faster forward speed by tonight as a low-level ridge strengthens to the north of the depression. When the ridge moves eastward in a couple of days, Ida or its remnant should turn westward. The new NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 24.3N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 24.2N 48.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 23.6N 50.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 23.2N 52.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 23.2N 54.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 24.0N 58.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 24.2N 61.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
2015-09-27 10:42:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 27 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 270842 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0900 UTC SUN SEP 27 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Summary for Tropical Depression IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-27 10:42:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA TURNS WESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 27 the center of IDA was located near 24.3, -48.0 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
ida
Tropical Depression IDA Public Advisory Number 36
2015-09-27 10:42:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 270842 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 ...IDA TURNS WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 48.0W ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 48.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest and an increase in forward speed is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Advisory Number 36
2015-09-27 10:42:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 27 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 270842 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0900 UTC SUN SEP 27 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 48.0W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 48.0W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 47.8W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 24.2N 48.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.6N 50.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.2N 52.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.2N 54.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.0N 58.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 24.2N 61.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 48.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Sites : [1220] [1221] [1222] [1223] [1224] [1225] [1226] [1227] [1228] [1229] [1230] [1231] [1232] [1233] [1234] [1235] [1236] [1237] [1238] [1239] next »