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Tropical Depression IDA Graphics
2015-09-26 16:51:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Sep 2015 14:37:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Sep 2015 14:50:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Discussion Number 33
2015-09-26 16:36:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 261436 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2015 There continues to be little change in the satellite appearance of Ida with the low-level center exposed to the west of a persistent area of deep convection. The circulation of the system remains large and well defined. Recent ASCAT data suggest that the initial intensity is still 30 kt, which is a little higher than the Dvorak classifications. The strong westerly shear that has been affecting Ida during the past several days is expected to lessen by tomorrow. Consequently, the SHIPS guidance shows the system gaining strength. However, nearly all of the dynamical models show little, if any, strengthening of Ida. The official forecast continues to prefer the solution provided by the dynamical models due to the continued influence of dry air near the system. It is also possible that the depression could dissipate in a few days when a frontal boundary stalls just to the north of Ida, which could cause the circulation to become elongated or open into a trough. Given the various scenarios provided by the guidance, this forecast is quite uncertain. Ida is still moving north-northwestward at about 7 kt, but it is expected to turn west-northwestward by tonight and southwestward by late tomorrow as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of the system. A general westward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected beyond that time. Although there is some spread in the guidance, most of the models agree on this general theme. A small northward adjustment was made to the previous forecast track beyond 48 hours, to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 24.0N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 24.7N 47.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 24.9N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 24.4N 48.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 23.9N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 23.5N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 23.7N 57.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 24.1N 60.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-26 16:35:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 26 the center of IDA was located near 24.0, -46.5 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression IDA Public Advisory Number 33
2015-09-26 16:35:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 261435 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2015 ...IDA STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 46.5W ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 46.5 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph. A turn toward the west and then southwest is forecast during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2015-09-26 16:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 26 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 261435 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1500 UTC SAT SEP 26 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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