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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Public Advisory Number 5
2015-07-28 22:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 282033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NOT WELL ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 130.4W ABOUT 1400 MI...2255 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 130.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Advisory Number 5
2015-07-28 22:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 282033 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 2100 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 130.4W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 130.4W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 129.8W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.8N 132.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.0N 137.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.0N 139.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 130.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-07-28 16:33:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 281433 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 The depression continues to lack banding features, and the low-level center is located near the northwestern edge of a recent flare-up of deep convection. Subjective Dvorak estimates are unchanged from six hours ago, while final-T numbers from the UW-CIMSS ADT have been decreasing. The initial winds are therefore kept at 30 kt. The SHIPS diagnostics indicate that 15-20 kt of north-northwesterly shear is currently affecting the depression. The shear is expected to decrease gradually after 12-24 hours, but then the cyclone will also be moving into a drier air mass. The intensity and global models show no or minimal strengthening, but the official forecast still allows for the system to become a tropical storm sometime during the next 24 hours. Dissipation could occur earlier than shown below, with both the GFS and ECMWF showing the system becoming an open trough by 72 hours. The subtropical ridge continues to steer the depression west- northwestward at about 11 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn westward later today and maintain that trajectory until it dissipates in three or four days. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast, which lies very close to the GFS-ECMWF consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 16.4N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 16.7N 130.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 17.0N 133.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 17.2N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 17.2N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 16.8N 144.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT-E (EP3/EP082015)
2015-07-28 16:33:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 the center of EIGHT-E was located near 16.4, -129.1 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Public Advisory Number 4
2015-07-28 16:33:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 281432 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 129.1W ABOUT 1325 MI...2135 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 129.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but the depression could still become a tropical storm later today or on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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