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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2015-07-28 16:33:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 281432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 1500 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 129.1W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 129.1W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 128.5W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.7N 130.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.0N 133.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.2N 135.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.2N 138.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.8N 144.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 129.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2015-07-28 16:33:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 281432 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 1500 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Graphics
2015-07-28 10:34:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 28 Jul 2015 08:34:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 28 Jul 2015 08:31:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-07-28 10:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280833 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 There has not been much change with the depression during the last several hours. Although an area of deep convection has been persisting near and to the south of the center, the cloud pattern lacks banding features. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classification from SAB. The depression is currently experiencing about 15 kt of north-northwesterly shear, which is the reason why most of the thunderstorms are located to the south of the center. This continued shear, in combination with a stable air mass to the north of the cyclone should allow for only slight strengthening, if any, during the next day or two. After that time, weakening is expected when the system moves into an even more stable air mass and over slightly cooler water. None of the intensity models show significant strengthening, and the NHC forecast lies near the ICON consensus model. Most of the global models show the depression opening into a trough in 3 to 4 days, and the NHC forecast follows that theme by showing dissipation at 96 hours. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of the system should cause the cyclone to turn westward by tonight, and that general motion is forecast to continue until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is just a tad to the south of the previous one, trending toward the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 16.2N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 16.6N 129.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 16.9N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 17.2N 134.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 17.3N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 17.3N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2015-07-28 10:31:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 280831 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 0900 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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