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Tropical Depression SIX-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-07-13 04:36:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 130236 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015 The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the last several hours. Deep convection remains mainly confined to a curved band to the south of the center and in an area over the northeastern quadrant. Although the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support raising the intensity to minimal tropical storm strength, 35 kt, I am maintaining the wind speed at 30 kt based on the steady state nature of the system since the ASCAT pass earlier today. The depression has wobbled northward over the past few hours, but a longer term motion is west-northwestward at 5 kt. A slightly faster west-northwestward to northwestward motion is predicted during the next 3 to 4 days while the cyclone is steered by a narrow mid-level ridge. Beyond that time, the system is expected to slow down when the steering currents collapse due to the approach of Dolores to its east. The NHC track forecast has been nudged to the north of the previous one, primarily to account for the more northward initial position. The cyclone has an opportunity to strengthen during the next couple of days while it remains in low wind shear conditions and over relatively warm water. There does appear to be a fair amount of stable air to the north of the system, however, and that could limit the amount of intensification that occurs. Beyond 48 hours, the cyclone is expected to move over cooler water and into a drier air mass. These conditions should provoke weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and is in best agreement with the SHIPS model. It is worth noting that none of the intensity guidance shows much strengthening of the system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 14.0N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 15.0N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 15.7N 128.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 16.4N 129.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 16.9N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 17.7N 134.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 18.5N 136.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 18.6N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression SIX-E (EP1/EP062015)
2015-07-13 04:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 the center of SIX-E was located near 14.0, -126.0 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SIX-E Public Advisory Number 3
2015-07-13 04:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 130234 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 126.0W ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 126.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression SIX-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2015-07-13 04:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 130234 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 0300 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 126.0W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 126.0W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 125.9W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.0N 127.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.7N 128.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.4N 129.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.9N 131.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.7N 134.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 18.5N 136.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 18.6N 137.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 126.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression SIX-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2015-07-13 04:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 130234 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 0300 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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