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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Graphics
2015-07-08 04:46:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Jul 2015 02:45:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Jul 2015 02:43:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-07-08 04:44:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 07 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080244 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042015 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 07 2015 Visible satellite images late this afternoon indicate that curved bands of convection have developed around the center of the well-defined low pressure system located more than 1000 n mi east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Therefore the system now qualifies as a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being initiated at this time. SAB/TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimates range from T1.5/25 kt to T2.5/35 kt, and the system has a pattern T-number of T2.0, so the initial intensity is set at 30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt. During the next 72 hours, the cyclone is forecast to move in a general west-northwestward direction along the southern periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge located to its north. By 96 hours, the system is expected to weaken and become more vertically shallow, and be steered westward by the low-level easterly trade wind flow. The models are in general agreement through 72 hours, but then diverge significantly after that, with most of the NHC guidance moving the cyclone or its remnants west-northwestward to northwestward at 96 and 120 hours. The exception is the ECMWF model, which turns the system west-southwestward by 96 hours and beyond. The official forecast track is similar to the consensus model TVCE through 72 hours, and then follows the ECMWF trend after that since this model maintains a larger and more realistic vortex on days 4 and 5. The SHIPS guidance indicates that the deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to remain below 10 kt while the system is over 26C or greater sea-surface temperatures for the next 24 hours or so, which should allow for gradual strengthening into a tropical storm. By 48 hours, the shear is forecast to increase to more than 20 kt from the southwest, which should cap any intensification and induce a steady weakening trend after that. However, the GFS-based SHIPS model is forecasting stronger vertical shear than the ECMWF model and, as a result, shows complete dissipation of the cyclone by 96 hours. Given the reliability of the ECMWF, the official intensity forecast has incorporated a blend of these two models' shear computations, and maintains the system as a tropical cyclone through 96 hours, and a remnant low at 120 hours. This scenario seems more likely given the rather large size of the circulation, which will make the vortex more shear resistant and also take longer to spin down and dissipate. The depression has crossed 140W longitude as of the 0300 UTC advisory time, so this will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on the depression will be provided by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 15.4N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 16.6N 142.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 17.6N 144.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 18.6N 146.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 19.6N 148.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 21.5N 152.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 22.7N 156.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 23.0N 160.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2015-07-08 04:44:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 08 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 080244 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042015 0300 UTC WED JUL 08 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 15(33) 1(34) X(34) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 16(24) 2(26) X(26) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR-E (EP4/EP042015)
2015-07-08 04:43:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SIMON BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 the center of FOUR-E was located near 15.4, -140.2 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Public Advisory Number 1
2015-07-08 04:43:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 07 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 080243 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042015 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 07 2015 ..FOURTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS AND THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 140.2W ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of the system over the next few days. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 140.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or early Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu Hawaii, under AWIPS Header TCPCP1 and WMO Header WTPA31 PHFO, beginning at 11 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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