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Tropical Depression ENRIQUE Graphics
2015-07-17 23:14:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Jul 2015 20:36:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Jul 2015 21:06:30 GMT
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Tropical Depression ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 22
2015-07-17 22:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 172035 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 Recently received ASCAT data shows that Enrique has weakened to a tropical depression with winds of 30 kt. There is currently no deep convection associated with the cyclone, although several bands of low-topped showers are present. Unless there is a significant increase in convection, the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in 24 hours or less. After that, the dynamical guidance suggests that the remnant low should persist for several more days before dissipating. The initial motion is 270/2. The track guidance indicates that Enrique and its remnants should make a counter-clockwise loop during the next three days or so, followed by a northwestward motion. The new track forecast is again similar to the previous forecast and is near the center of the track guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 20.5N 137.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 20.3N 137.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 19.9N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0600Z 19.9N 137.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1800Z 20.2N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z 21.5N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1800Z 23.0N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression ENRIQUE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2015-07-17 22:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 172034 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 2100 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression ENRIQUE (EP1/EP062015)
2015-07-17 22:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE IS AGAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 17 the center of ENRIQUE was located near 20.5, -137.1 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ENRIQUE Public Advisory Number 22
2015-07-17 22:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 172034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 ...ENRIQUE IS AGAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 137.1W ABOUT 1750 MI...2815 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Enrique was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 137.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the southwest is expected during the next day or so, followed by a slow and erratic motion. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Enrique is expected to degenerate to a remnant area of low pressure on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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