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Tropical Depression SIX-E Graphics
2015-07-12 23:16:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2015 20:48:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2015 21:08:29 GMT
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Tropical Depression SIX-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-07-12 22:51:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 122051 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015 The convective structure of the tropical cyclone has improved somewhat today, with a band of deep convection wrapping around the south and southwestern portions of the circulation. Although Dvorak data T-numbers have increased to T2.5 from both agencies, a recent ASCAT pass suggests that the system is still below tropical storm strength. Environmental conditions consisting of warm water and low vertical wind shear should allow for strengthening during the next couple of days. The primary inhibiting factor appears to be some drier and more stable air to the north and northwest of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is in close agreement with the SHIPS guidance during the first 48 hours. After that time, increasing southerly shear, cooler waters, and a more stable airmass are expected to cause weakening. Visible satellite images indicate that the initial position of the cyclone is a little south of the previous estimate. As a result, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/6. The depression is expected to move on a general west-northwest to northwest heading during the next several days while it remains to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge. Near the end of the forecast period, the global models continue to show weakening of the steering flow over the far eastern Pacific as the large circulation of Dolores approaches from the east. This is likely to cause the cyclone's forward speed to decrease. The track guidance remains in agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is close to the GFS ensemble mean, and just south of the model consensus. The new NHC track is a little south of the previous advisory due to the more southward initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 13.6N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 14.5N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 15.3N 128.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 15.9N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 16.4N 130.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 17.0N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 18.0N 135.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 18.3N 136.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression SIX-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2015-07-12 22:47:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 122047 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression SIX-E (EP1/EP062015)
2015-07-12 22:47:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 the center of SIX-E was located near 13.6, -125.8 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SIX-E Public Advisory Number 2
2015-07-12 22:47:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 122047 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 125.8W ABOUT 1225 MI...1970 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 125.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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