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Summary for Tropical Depression SIX-E (EP1/EP062015)
2015-07-12 17:53:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... As of 9:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 the center of SIX-E was located near 13.6, -125.3 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SIX-E Public Advisory Number 1
2015-07-12 17:53:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 121553 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 900 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM PDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 125.3W ABOUT 1195 MI...1925 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM PDT (1600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 125.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression SIX-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2015-07-12 17:53:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1600 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 121553 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 1600 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 125.3W AT 12/1600Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 125.3W AT 12/1600Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 124.9W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.6N 127.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.3N 128.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.8N 130.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 133.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 17.8N 136.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 18.2N 138.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 125.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Graphics
2015-07-12 04:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2015 02:37:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2015 02:34:48 GMT
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-07-12 04:34:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120234 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 Tropical Depression Five-E is gradually becoming better organized. A broad convective band is present in the northeastern semicircle, with the coldest cloud tops currently in a cluster to the north of the center. Satellite intensity estimates are 30 kt from TAFB and 25 kt from SAB, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The cirrus outflow is good in all directions except the southeast. The initial motion is 300/8. The consensus of the track guidance is that the cyclone should move generally west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico for the next 48 hours or so, steered by a deep-layer ridge over northern Mexico and the southern United States. The guidance becomes divergent after that time due to the uncertainty in the evolution of a deep-layer trough over the northeastern Pacific and the western United States. The GFS and ECMWF suggest that a ridge will build westward from Mexico between the cyclone and the trough, and they thus forecast the depression to turn westward. The UKMET, GFDL, and GFDN forecast the trough to prevent the ridge from building, and thus show a northwestward motion. The new track forecast follows the GFS/ECMWF scenario in showing a westward turn, and it lies a little to the south of the previous track. The depression is expected to remain in a moist environment and over warm sea surface temperatures for the next several days. The vertical wind shear is currently light, and the environment is favorable for rapid intensification during the next 24-36 hours as shown by the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index. However, the cyclone currently lacks a well-defined inner core, and the GFS and ECMWF suggest that a period of moderate northerly shear may affect the cyclone around 48 hours. These factors could slow or stop any rapid intensification. Overall, the intensity guidance is stronger than that of the previous advisory, with the SHIPS model forecasting an intensity near 100 kt by 120 hours. The intensity forecast calls for the same steady strengthening through 48 hours as the previous forecast, then shows slightly higher intensities for 72-120 hours. The forecast is in best agreement with the intensity consensus through 72 hours, and is near the SHIPS model after that. Although the current track forecast remains offshore of Mexico, a small deviation to the north of the projected track could require the issuance of tropical storm watches or warnings for a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 13.8N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 14.6N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 15.8N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 16.6N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 17.3N 106.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 18.5N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 19.5N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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