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Tropical Depression SIX-E Forecast Advisory Number 2

2015-07-12 22:46:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 122046 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 125.8W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 125.8W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 125.6W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 14.5N 127.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.3N 128.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.9N 129.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.4N 130.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.0N 133.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 135.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 18.3N 136.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 125.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression SIX-E Graphics

2015-07-12 19:55:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2015 17:55:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2015 15:53:48 GMT

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Tropical Depression SIX-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2015-07-12 18:01:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 121601 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 900 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015 Convection associated with the area of low pressure located well southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has become better organized since yesterday, with a band now wrapping around the western semicircle of the system. Overnight scatterometer data and early morning visible satellite pictures indicate that the circulation has become sufficiently well defined, therefore advisories are being initiated on the sixth tropical depression of the 2015 eastern Pacific hurricane season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with a TAFB Dvorak classification of 2.0. The depression is forecast to remain over warm water and in a low shear environment during the next few days, however, drier and more stable air to the northwest of the cyclone may prevent significant intensification. The NHC intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening during the next few days, and is in best agreement with the SHIPS guidance. The cyclone is expected to move over cooler waters which should induce some weakening at days 4 and 5. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/6. The depression is forecast to turn west-northwestward as a ridge builds to its north during the next day or two. After that time, the cyclone should maintain a general westward to west-northwestward track. Later in the period, global models suggest that the steering flow should weaken around the depression as Dolores' circulation approaches from the west. This pattern should cause the depression's forward speed to decrease. Although the track guidance is in general agreement with this scenario, there is some spread in how much latitude the depression will gain during the next couple of days. The NHC track is closest to the GFS ensemble mean, which is a little south of the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1600Z 13.6N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 14.5N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 15.6N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 16.3N 128.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 16.8N 130.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 17.5N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 17.8N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 18.2N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression SIX-E Graphics

2015-07-12 17:54:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2015 15:54:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2015 15:53:48 GMT

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Tropical Depression SIX-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2015-07-12 17:54:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1600 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 121554 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 1600 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015 AT 1600Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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