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Summary for Tropical Depression FIVE-E (EP5/EP052015)
2015-07-12 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SUNDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 the center of FIVE-E was located near 13.8, -100.0 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Public Advisory Number 3
2015-07-12 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 120234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 100.0W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system since watches or warnings could be required later tonight or on Sunday. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 100.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of the depression are expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals of 5 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to increase near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico during the next few days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2015-07-12 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 120234 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0300 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM SINCE WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 100.0W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 100.0W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 99.7W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.6N 101.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.8N 103.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.6N 105.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.3N 106.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 19.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 100.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-07-11 22:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 112033 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 The cloud pattern of the depression appears to be gradually organizing. Visible satellite images show banding features increasing on the east side of the circulation and some of the outer bands are affecting the southern coast of Mexico. The initial wind speed estimate remains 30 kt, in agreement with the satellite classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT. It should be noted that recent ASCAT passes showed slightly higher winds, but those appear to be partly associated with a Tehuantepec gap wind event. The depression is expected to strengthen during the next several days while it remains over warm water and in atmosphere of low shear and high moisture. The GFS and ECMWF models show the system substantially deepening during the next several days, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 63 percent chance of the system strengthening by 25 kt during the next 24 hours. Conversely, the GFDL and HWRF models continue to predict only slight strengthening. The official forecast is a little higher than the previous one and lies at the high end of the model guidance, following the SHIPS model. The initial motion estimate is 300/9. A continued west-northwestward to northwestward motion at about the same speed is expected during the next couple of days while the system is steered by a mid-level ridge over the south-central United States. After that time, a slower west-northwestward motion is forecast when the ridge weakens. Little change was made to the previous forecast and it remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. Although the current track forecast remains offshore of Mexico, a small deviation to the north of the projected track could require the issuance of tropical storm watches or warnings for a portion of the southwestern coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 13.7N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 14.5N 101.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 16.8N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 17.7N 106.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 18.7N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 19.7N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 20.0N 111.7W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Graphics
2015-07-11 22:22:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2015 20:22:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2015 20:21:48 GMT
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