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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2015-07-11 22:21:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 112021 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) 6(25) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 7(23) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 3(13) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 4(17) 2(19) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 10(21) 3(24) 2(26) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 14(25) 8(33) 2(35) 2(37) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22) 6(28) 2(30) 1(31) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) 2(16) 1(17) 1(18) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) 1(12) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 17(36) 6(42) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) 6(26) 3(29) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression FIVE-E (EP5/EP052015)
2015-07-11 22:21:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 the center of FIVE-E was located near 13.7, -99.5 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Public Advisory Number 2
2015-07-11 22:21:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 112021 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 99.5W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system since watches or warnings could be required. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 99.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the cyclone is expected to remain offshore of the coast of Mexico. However, a small deviation to the north of the projected track could bring stronger winds to the coast. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of the depression are expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals of 5 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to increase near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico during the next few days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2015-07-11 22:21:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 112021 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM SINCE WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.5W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.5W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 99.0W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.5N 101.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.8N 105.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.7N 106.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.7N 108.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 19.7N 110.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 20.0N 111.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 99.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR-E (EP4/EP042015)
2015-07-08 05:25:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FOURTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS AND THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 the center of FOUR-E was located near 15.4, -140.2 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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