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Tropical Depression CARLOS Public Advisory Number 28A
2015-06-17 19:43:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 171743 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 100 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 ...CARLOS WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 105.5W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos was located along the coast of western Mexico near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 105.5 West. Carlos is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue until dissipation occurs on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Carlos will move near or along the western coast of Mexico today, and move into the southern Gulf of California late tonight or Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Carlos is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low this afternoon or evening and dissipate on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across the Mexican states of Jalisco and Colima. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. During the past 24 hours, an automated observation station at Chamelaciuxmala, Mexico, reported 1.54 inches (39 mm) of rainfall. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression BILL Public Advisory Number 7
2015-06-17 17:55:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
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Tropical Depression BILL Graphics
2015-06-17 10:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Jun 2015 08:35:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Jun 2015 08:33:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression BILL Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-06-17 10:34:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 170834 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 400 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 While radar data show that Bill is maintaining a good convective banding structure, surface observations indicate that the cyclone has weakened to a tropical depression over central Texas. The initial intensity is 30 kt, with these winds occurring in rainbands near and east of the center. The large-scale models suggest that only slow weakening will occur during the next 24-36 hours, and Bill is likely to remain a tropical cyclone until the center moves into eastern Oklahoma on Thursday. After that, the cyclone is expected to degenerate to a remnant low, with the low being absorbed by a frontal system over the eastern United States in about 96 hours. The initial motion is 360/11. Bill is expected to moved northward for the next 12-24 hours on the west side of the subtropical ridge. Subsequently, the cyclone should turn northeastward as it enters the westerlies. The track model guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track lies close to the model consensus. The main hazard from Bill is expected to be heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma over the next day or two. Please see products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on the flood threat. This is the last advisory on Bill issued by the National Hurricane Center. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 31.0N 97.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1800Z 32.6N 97.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0600Z 34.3N 96.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1800Z 35.5N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0600Z 36.5N 93.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 20/0600Z 38.5N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression BILL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2015-06-17 10:34:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 17 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 170833 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 0900 UTC WED JUN 17 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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