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Summary for Tropical Depression DOUGLAS (EP4/EP042014)
2014-07-05 10:45:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 the center of DOUGLAS was located near 23.1, -119.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression DOUGLAS Public Advisory Number 27
2014-07-05 10:45:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 05 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 050844 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 05 2014 ...DOUGLAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 119.6W ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression DOUGLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2014-07-05 10:45:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 050844 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression DOUGLAS Forecast Advisory Number 27
2014-07-05 10:44:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 050844 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 119.6W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 119.6W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 119.3W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.9N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.9N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.8N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.5N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 119.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-07-04 04:33:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040233 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 The center of Douglas is partially exposed to the west of a small area of deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates are about the same as earlier, so 30 kt is kept as the initial wind speed. Douglas should gradually lose strength over the next few days while it moves over cold water within a more stable environment. The latest NHC intensity prediction is about the same as the previous one. Douglas will likely become a remnant low on Friday while it traverses sub-24C waters. The low should dissipate in about 4 days according to the global model guidance. The depression is moving a little faster toward the northwest at about 4 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to build somewhat over the western United States during the next 48 hours, which should cause Douglas or its remnants to speed up a little bit. Model guidance is virtually unchanged from 6 hours ago, so the latest NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 20.9N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 21.4N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0000Z 22.1N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1200Z 22.9N 119.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z 23.7N 121.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 24.8N 123.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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