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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-11-02 09:37:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 020837 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 200 AM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION NEAR THE PRESUMED CENTER AND A CIRCULATION THAT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE IS STRETCHED NORTH TO SOUTH. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS MISSED THE WESTERN AND STRONGER SEMICIRCLE...AND THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN BELOW STORM STRENGTH...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. A MICROWAVE PASS AT 0441Z SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED PERHAPS ABOUT 50 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE MORE SOUTHERN MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WHICH YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 320/4. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO WILL NUDGE THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THAT A LARGE APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE AND RECURVE THE SYSTEM AFTER THAT. THE GUIDANCE IS FASTER ON THIS CYCLE...THE GFS PARTICULARLY SO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EVEN WITH THIS ADJUSTMENT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE TVCE CONSENSUS...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE NEW ECMWF. DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN HINDERED BY EASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND... POSSIBLY...THE SPRAWLING AND RELATIVELY ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE SHEAR WILL LESSEN BRIEFLY AS IT SWITCHES FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN 24-36 HOURS...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...ONLY THE HWRF MAKES THE SYSTEM A STORM AND THEN ONLY BARELY. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE WEAKENING ON THE APPROACH TO BAJA AND MAINLAND MEXICO...AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SURFACE CENTER LOSING DEFINITION BEFORE LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENEROUSLY INCLUDES A 72-HR FORECAST POINT TO ALLOW THE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST...BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL EXIST IN THREE DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.2N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 17.7N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 18.8N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 20.6N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 23.1N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 27.5N 105.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2013-11-02 09:34:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 020834 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 6 9 17 55 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 61 35 34 42 34 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 36 58 54 39 11 NA NA HURRICANE X 2 3 2 X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 3 2 X NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 35KT 35KT 30KT 15KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 22(23) 8(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E (EP3/EP182013)
2013-11-02 09:34:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION EDGING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Nov 2 the center of EIGHTEEN-E was located near 17.2, -108.7 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 5
2013-11-02 09:34:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 020834 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 200 AM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION EDGING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 108.7W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION AND TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WOULD PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 5
2013-11-02 09:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 020833 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 108.7W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 108.7W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 108.5W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.7N 109.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.8N 110.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.6N 110.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.1N 108.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 27.5N 105.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 108.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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