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Tropical Depression FOUR Forecast Advisory Number 1
2013-07-24 10:40:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 24 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240840 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 0900 UTC WED JUL 24 2013 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 28.1W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 28.1W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 27.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.6N 30.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.5N 34.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.2N 37.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.8N 41.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.2N 49.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 19.3N 56.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 20.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 28.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression ERICK Graphics
2013-07-09 11:13:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Jul 2013 08:33:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Jul 2013 09:06:28 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression ERICK (EP5/EP052013)
2013-07-09 10:32:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK SOON TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 9 the center of ERICK was located near 23.9, -112.4 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ERICK Public Advisory Number 20
2013-07-09 10:32:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 090832 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 09 2013 ...ERICK SOON TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 112.4W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 20
2013-07-09 10:32:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090832 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 09 2013 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...PRACTICALLY ALL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ERICK HAS DISSIPATED. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER COOL WATERS AND WILL SOON BE TRAVERSING EVEN LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. ERICK SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND WILL PROBABLY BE DESIGNATED AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CENTER HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE BEST GUESS IS THAT IT REMAINS ON COURSE WITH A MOTION OF ABOUT 310/9. THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 23.9N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 24.8N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/1800Z 26.0N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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