je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression ERICK Public Advisory Number 19
2013-07-09 04:55:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 090255 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 ...ERICK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 111.6W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND EARLY ON TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK COULD STILL BE AFFECTING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression ERICK Forecast Advisory Number 19
2013-07-09 04:55:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 090255 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 0300 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 111.6W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 111.6W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 111.2W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.1N 112.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.1N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.7N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 111.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 19
2013-07-09 04:53:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090253 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 2239 UTC SSM/I IMAGE SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERICK TO BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED...WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT AT 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ERICK HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED...AND ERICK IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION ON THIS BASIS. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE ERICK IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND ENTER AND AN EVEN MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST WITHIN 24 HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE CENTER OF ERICK IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/09. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER ERICK ON A SIMILAR HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE WESTERLY AND DECELERATE PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 23.2N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 24.1N 112.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 25.1N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/1200Z 25.7N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0000Z 26.0N 117.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression DALILA Graphics
2013-07-07 05:07:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Jul 2013 02:52:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Jul 2013 03:03:45 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 30
2013-07-07 04:51:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070251 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 A LITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DALILA EARLIER...BUT THE LAST SIGNIFICANT BURST DISSIPATED A FEW HOURS AGO. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE ERICK IS SQUELCHING THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO ACCORDING TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS ABSENT OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MUCH LONGER...IT WILL LIKELY BE DESIGNATED A REMNANT LOW. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER IF NO NEW CONVECTION REFORMS SOON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND IN LINE WITH THE BULK OF THE MODEL INTENSITY OUTPUT. DALILA DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... BUT APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED ITS HEADING TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST- SOUTHEAST MORE RECENTLY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS GRADUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE ERICK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FIRST MOVING EASTWARD AND THEN TURNING NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS GENERALLY LEFT OR NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 16.8N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 16.8N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/0000Z 16.9N 112.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1200Z 17.4N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0000Z 18.0N 112.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0000Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Sites : [1621] [1622] [1623] [1624] [1625] [1626] [1627] [1628] [1629] [1630] [1631] [1632] [1633] [1634] [1635] [1636] [1637] [1638] [1639] [1640] next »