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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-06-17 17:09:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 171509 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1100 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE CENTER IS NEARING THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE TIME FOR INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IF THE SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUESDAY AS INDICATED BY THE NHC FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/11. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW AN EAST-WEST RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 16.2N 87.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 16.9N 89.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 18.0N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/0000Z 18.8N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 19/1200Z 19.3N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 20/1200Z 19.7N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
2013-06-17 17:07:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 17 Jun 2013 14:56:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 17 Jun 2013 15:03:43 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-06-17 16:59:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 17 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 171459 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1500 UTC MON JUN 17 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 14 21 25 29 35 44 NA TROP DEPRESSION 77 50 36 32 29 28 NA TROPICAL STORM 10 28 38 37 33 27 NA HURRICANE X X 2 3 3 2 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 2 2 3 2 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 20KT 25KT 30KT 30KT 35KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) X(15) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 2(20) X(20) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 1
2013-06-17 16:55:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 17 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 171455 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1500 UTC MON JUN 17 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 87.6W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 87.6W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 87.1W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.9N 89.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.8N 93.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.3N 94.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.7N 96.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 87.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression BARBARA Information by ATCF XML (protoype)
2013-05-30 17:24:37| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at Thu, 30 May 2013 15:24:37 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.
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