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Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
2013-06-18 11:08:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 18 Jun 2013 08:32:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 18 Jun 2013 09:04:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-06-18 10:35:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 180835 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 500 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS RAGGED... AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO FIND IN THE MULTI-CHANNEL INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND JOGGED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/07. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. IN GENERAL...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTHWARD...FOR THIS CYCLE. GIVEN THIS SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE AND THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TOWARD THE NORTH. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES SOUTH OF THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS TRACKS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AFTER THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN FORECAST...IT COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE THAN SHOWN HERE. HOWEVER...IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE ENTIRELY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 17.0N 89.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/1800Z 17.5N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 19/0600Z 18.1N 92.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/1800Z 18.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 20/0600Z 18.6N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 21/0600Z 18.7N 96.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022013)
2013-06-18 10:34:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA... ...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 the center of TWO was located near 17.0, -89.4 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 4
2013-06-18 10:34:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 180833 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 500 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013 ...DEPRESSION MOVING OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA... ...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 89.4W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ENE OF TIKAL GUATEMALA ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND EASTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MOVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS OVER LAND. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY IF THE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS... ALONG WITH THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...TABASCO...CHIAPAS.... SOUTHERN CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN QUINTANA ROO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME RECENT 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS INCLUDE 5.16 INCHES...131 MM...AT TELA HONDURAS...AND 3.58 INCHES...91 MM...AT BELIZE CITY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 4
2013-06-18 10:31:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 180831 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 0900 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 89.4W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 89.4W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 89.0W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.5N 90.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.1N 92.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.5N 93.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.6N 94.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.7N 96.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 89.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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