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Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
2013-06-19 11:08:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 19 Jun 2013 08:48:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 19 Jun 2013 09:04:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-06-19 10:39:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 190838 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 400 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE DISTINCT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 25 KT...AN ASCAT PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO...THAT CAUGHT A PORTION OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ANTICYCLONE WILL FORM OVER THE SYSTEM WHEN IT NEARS THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MOST RECENT STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE CENTER OF THIS SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE ON NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 300/8. A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER TEXAS SHOULD INDUCE SOME ADDITIONAL DECELERATION ALONG WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL FORECAST...AND DELAYS THE TIME OF LANDFALL IN MEXICO A LITTLE IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST ADVISORY. BASED ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS... THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 19.3N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 19.4N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 19.4N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 19.3N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/0600Z 19.2N 97.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022013)
2013-06-19 10:37:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 the center of TWO was located near 19.3, -93.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 8
2013-06-19 10:37:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 190837 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 400 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 93.3W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO WESTWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ THURSDAY MORNING MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2013-06-19 10:37:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 19 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 190837 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 0900 UTC WED JUN 19 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 7 10 31 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 57 40 36 42 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 41 50 51 25 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 2 4 2 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 4 2 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 35KT 35KT 20KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VERACRUZ MX 34 1 14(15) 9(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) VERACRUZ MX 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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