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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-06-18 22:37:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 182037 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013 A FEW HOURS AGO I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE THE DEPRESSION A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA FROM MEXICO STILL SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE REDEVELOPING. ASSUMING THAT THE DEPRESSION MAINTAINS OR IMPROVES ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST WOULD BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE REPLACED BY A NARROW RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...UNTIL THE DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 18.3N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 18.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 19.0N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 19.0N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022013)
2013-06-18 22:37:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 the center of TWO was located near 18.3, -91.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 6
2013-06-18 22:37:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 182037 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 91.9W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSW OF CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN EASTERN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WEDNESDAY AND REACH THE COAST ON THE STATE OF VERACRUZ WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2013-06-18 22:37:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 182037 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 2100 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 5 11 14 33 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 74 50 44 41 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 21 38 41 25 NA NA NA HURRICANE X 1 2 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 2 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 30KT 30KT 20KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 9( 9) 12(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FRONTERA MX 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 6
2013-06-18 22:34:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 182033 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 2100 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN EASTERN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 91.9W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 91.9W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 91.5W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.7N 93.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.0N 95.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.0N 97.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 91.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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