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Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022013)
2013-06-19 04:48:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 the center of TWO was located near 18.9, -92.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 7
2013-06-19 04:48:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 190248 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 92.7W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO WESTWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND REACH THE COAST IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2013-06-19 04:48:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 19 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 190248 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 0300 UTC WED JUN 19 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 11 14 32 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 57 50 45 42 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 41 38 40 25 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 1 2 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 1 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 30KT 20KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VERACRUZ MX 34 1 10(11) 8(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) VERACRUZ MX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 7
2013-06-19 04:48:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 19 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190247 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 0300 UTC WED JUN 19 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO WESTWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 92.7W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 92.7W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 92.4W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.2N 94.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.2N 95.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.0N 96.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 97.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 92.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
2013-06-18 23:07:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 18 Jun 2013 20:34:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 18 Jun 2013 21:03:44 GMT
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