je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2013-06-18 10:31:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 180831 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 0900 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 5 15 23 26 36 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 75 57 47 37 31 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 21 28 30 35 31 NA NA HURRICANE X 1 1 2 2 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 2 2 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 25KT 25KT 30KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) FRONTERA MX 34 X 7( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
2013-06-18 05:08:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 18 Jun 2013 02:43:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 18 Jun 2013 03:04:44 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-06-18 04:43:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 180243 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 8 KT THIS EVENING OVER BELIZE...AS BEST CAN BE DETERMINED FROM THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND SPARSE OBSERVATIONAL DATA. A CONTINUED TRACK IN THIS DIRECTION...THOUGH SLOWER...SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT ABOUT DAY THREE...A BEND TO THE WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED...WHICH IS COMMON FOR CYCLONES REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BECAUSE OF THE HIGH TOPOGRAPHY OF MEXICO. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT JUST SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED PRIMARILY UPON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS. NOTE THAT WHILE A 96 HR FORECAST POINT IS PROVIDED TO SHOW CONTINUITY OF THE TRACK OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SURVIVE QUITE THAT LONG OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE LIMITED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25 KT. IT IS OF NOTE THAT BEFORE LANDFALL A 1904Z AMSU PASS INDICATED A MODEST UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE HAD DEVELOPED...WITH THE CIMSS INTENSITY ANALYSIS SUGGESTING THAT IT MIGHT HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN OVER LAND FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36 HR...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY. AS THE FORECAST TRACK NOW ONLY BRIEFLY HAS THE CYCLONE REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS CONTINUING...IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL OVER MEXICO. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE EARLIER WHILE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEFORE REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 16.7N 88.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/1200Z 17.2N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 19/0000Z 17.8N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/1200Z 18.2N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0000Z 18.5N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 18.8N 96.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 22/0000Z 18.5N 98.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022013)
2013-06-18 04:42:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING INLAND OVER BELIZE... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 the center of TWO was located near 16.7, -88.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 3
2013-06-18 04:42:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 180242 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 ...DEPRESSION MOVING INLAND OVER BELIZE... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 88.9W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NW OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN BELIZE NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AND OVER EASTERN MEXICO BY LATE TUESDAY. THE DEPRESSION COULD EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR WHILE THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY IF THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS... ALONG WITH THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS...TABASCO...VERACRUZ...AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Sites : [1650] [1651] [1652] [1653] [1654] [1655] [1656] [1657] [1658] [1659] [1660] [1661] [1662] [1663] [1664] [1665] [1666] [1667] [1668] [1669] next »