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Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
2013-06-18 17:16:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 18 Jun 2013 15:16:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 18 Jun 2013 15:04:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022013)
2013-06-18 16:36:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 the center of TWO was located near 17.9, -90.0 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 5
2013-06-18 16:36:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 181435 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013 ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 90.0W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN EASTERN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-06-18 16:35:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 181435 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013 THE CENTER IS BECOMING VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MOST OF THE YUCATAN PENISULA. BASED ON THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND...THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT THE CIRCULATION COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH LATER TODAY WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER LAND. HOWEVER...IF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. EVEN IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER AS FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED SINCE A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER LAND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE REPLACED BY A NARROW RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS WHICH IN FACT HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE HISTORICAL SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS OBSERVED IN THE MODELS IN THIS AREA...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PLACED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ALTHOUGH A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 17.9N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.1N 91.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 19/1200Z 18.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 20/0000Z 19.0N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 20/1200Z 19.1N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 21/1200Z 19.2N 96.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 5
2013-06-18 16:34:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 181434 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1500 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN EASTERN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 90.0W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 90.0W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 89.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.1N 91.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.7N 93.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.0N 94.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.1N 95.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.2N 96.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 90.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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