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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 3
2013-06-18 04:42:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 180242 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 0300 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 88.9W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 88.9W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 88.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.2N 90.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.8N 92.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.2N 93.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 94.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.8N 96.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 18.5N 98.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 88.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2013-06-18 04:42:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 180242 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 0300 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 4 27 31 34 44 56 NA TROP DEPRESSION 78 57 41 31 32 22 NA TROPICAL STORM 18 16 28 33 23 22 NA HURRICANE X X 1 2 2 1 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 2 2 1 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT 25KT 30KT 20KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) FRONTERA MX 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
2013-06-17 23:08:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 17 Jun 2013 20:40:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 17 Jun 2013 21:04:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-06-17 22:40:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 172040 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 500 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN HARD TO LOCATE THIS AFTERNOON...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BELIZE. THE SYSTEM DID NOT STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN FACT BECAME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHED THE COAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER LAND...SOME OF IT MOUNTAINOUS...FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREFORE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE IN THAT TIME FRAME. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN EAST-WEST RIDGE WEAKENING...BUT REMAINING IN PLACE...OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH A SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE 1800 UTC TRACK GUIDANCE IS SOMETHAT SLOWER THAN THAT FROM THIS MORNING...AND SO IS THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. THE NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS...HOWEVER THE NEW ECMWF MODEL RUN IS FARTHER SOUTH AND SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 16.4N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 17.2N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1800Z 17.9N 91.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/0600Z 18.4N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 19/1800Z 18.8N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 19.3N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 21/1800Z 19.5N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2013-06-17 22:40:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 17 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 172039 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 2100 UTC MON JUN 17 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 4 25 28 33 38 47 NA TROP DEPRESSION 78 56 36 31 21 28 NA TROPICAL STORM 18 18 35 34 38 24 NA HURRICANE X X 1 2 3 1 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 2 3 1 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT 25KT 30KT 35KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) X(13) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 2(20) X(20) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 3(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA
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