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Tropical Depression Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-08-30 16:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 301436 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Iselle Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2020 Iselle is skirting the line between tropical cyclone and remnant low, producing a small amount of deep convection during the past few hours. While this isn't particularly organized thunderstorm activity, for now it is enough to keep advisories going another 6 hours. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, near the latest TAFB T-number. Iselle is still expected to degenerate into a remnant low later today due to persistent easterly shear and a dry and stable environment. Model guidance all show the system becoming a trough by Tuesday, so the dissipation phase has been pushed ahead from the last forecast. The guidance also remains in good agreement on a northward track today, followed by a north-northwest turn overnight. The track is shifted a bit to the east because of a more eastward initial position, otherwise it is unchanged. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 23.0N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 24.0N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 31/1200Z 25.0N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-08-30 16:35:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 301435 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Iselle (EP4/EP142020)
2020-08-30 16:35:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 the center of Iselle was located near 23.0, -113.3 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Iselle Public Advisory Number 17
2020-08-30 16:35:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 301435 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Iselle Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2020 ...ISELLE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 113.3W ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Iselle was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 113.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the north-northwest is expected by tomorrow before the cyclone dissipates. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Iselle is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today and decay into a trough of low pressure by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Iselle and a large area of southwesterly winds to its south are affecting portions of the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico, as well as the west coast of Baja California Sur. These swells are expected to continue for the next couple of days and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-08-30 16:35:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 301435 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 113.3W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 113.3W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 113.4W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.0N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.0N 113.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 113.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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