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Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-08-31 22:44:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 312044 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen (AT5/AL152020)
2020-08-31 22:43:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA BUT EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM LAND... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 the center of Fifteen was located near 32.6, -76.5 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Public Advisory Number 1
2020-08-31 22:43:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020 223 WTNT35 KNHC 312043 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA BUT EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 76.5W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 76.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a motion toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Tuesday, but little, if any, additional strengthening is forecast Tuesday night or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of North Carolina, especially along the Outer Banks. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through tomorrow. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-31 22:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 312043 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 76.5W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 76.5W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 76.9W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.8N 75.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 34.9N 72.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 35.8N 69.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.7N 67.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 37.6N 63.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 38.2N 60.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 39.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 41.5N 49.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 76.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Iselle Graphics
2020-08-30 16:36:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2020 14:36:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2020 15:24:28 GMT
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