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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-26 16:45:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 261445 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Earlier scatterometer data and GOES-16 Proxy-VIS satellite imagery indicate that the area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has acquired sufficient convective organization and a well-defined surface circulation, and is now classified as a tropical cyclone. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates and the aforementioned scatterometer data support an initial wind speed of 30 kt for this advisory. Moderate to strong east-northeasterly shear, the same inhibiting upper wind pattern that is affecting depression Thirteen-E, is forecast to hamper significant development through the entire forecast period. Therefore, only modest strengthening in the next 24 hours is expected, which agrees with the statistical- dynamical guidance and the large-scale models. The depression is moving rather slowly toward the northeast, or 040/2 kt. The low to mid-level steering synoptic pattern consists of a cyclonic gyre stretching southwestward from Hurricane Laura over central Mexico and into the eastern Pacific. This feature should cause the depression to continue in a northeastward general direction at a relatively slow pace through Friday. Afterward, a gradual turn toward the north-northwest and west-northwest is expected as high pressure currently over the southwestern U.S. builds westward over the Baja California peninsula and adjacent eastern Pacific. The NHC official forecast is a reflection of a blend of the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 15.4N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 15.8N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 16.4N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 17.0N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 17.8N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 18.6N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 19.6N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 21.4N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1200Z 22.4N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-08-26 16:45:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 261445 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 17(24) 7(31) 2(33) X(33) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 3(16) 1(17) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen-E (EP4/EP142020)
2020-08-26 16:44:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 26 the center of Fourteen-E was located near 15.4, -117.2 with movement NE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-08-26 16:44:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 261444 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 117.2W ABOUT 705 MI...1130 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 117.2 West. The depression is moving slowly toward the northeast near 2 mph (4km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-26 16:44:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 261444 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 117.2W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 117.2W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 117.3W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.8N 116.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.4N 116.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.0N 115.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.8N 114.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.6N 114.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.6N 113.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 21.4N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 22.4N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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