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Summary for Tropical Depression Laura (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-28 04:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LAURA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER ARKANSAS... ...FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES... As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 the center of Laura was located near 35.1, -92.0 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Laura Forecast Advisory Number 33
2020-08-28 04:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 280234 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 92.0W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 92.0W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 92.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.3N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 37.3N 87.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 38.0N 82.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.5N 75.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.5N 67.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 44.0N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 48.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 92.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 4 AM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3, WMO HEADER WTNT33 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Laura Public Advisory Number 33
2020-08-28 04:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 280234 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Laura Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...LAURA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER ARKANSAS... ...FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.1N 92.0W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Laura was located near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 92.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue overnight. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected to begin on Friday and continue into Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura is forecast to move over Arkansas tonight, the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday, the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday, and over the western Atlantic on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Laura is expected to become a remnant low pressure system on Saturday, and an extratropical low later this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through Friday, Laura is expected to produce the following additional rainfall totals: Over central and northern Arkansas: Additional 3 to 6 inches. Over southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated additional totals of 5 inches. Over northern Mississippi, western Tennessee, and south-central to southeast Missouri: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches. This rainfall will continue to cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. Through Saturday, Laura is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across portions of the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys, the central and southern Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic States. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises on small streams. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible this evening across eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and the Missouri Bootheel. The risk for a few tornadoes is expected to redevelop Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions. SURF: Swells produced by Laura continue to affect the U.S. Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Graphics
2020-08-26 16:56:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2020 14:56:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2020 15:32:02 GMT
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-26 16:55:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261454 CCA TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER The depression remains poorly organized this morning with the ill-defined surface circulation decoupled well to the east of the convective mass. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB support 30 kt for this advisory. UW-CIMSS shear analysis product shows stiff 20-25 kt of east-northeasterly shear impinging on the east portion of the depression. Both the FV3/GFS and ECMWF SHIPS statistical-dynamical intensity models indicate that the strong shear will persist through the forecast period. Consequently, little strengthening is expected during the next several days. Because of the vertical direction and magnitude, the forecast tropical-storm-force winds and the heaviest rainfall should remain offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the multi-model intensity guidance, and the global models beyond the 48 hr period which indicate the depression degenerating into a remnant low on day 3, and dissipation by day 5. The initial motion is estimated to be a drift east-northeastward, or 065/2 kt. The cyclone is embedded within an northeast-to-southwest oriented cyclonic gyre, similar to a reverse monsoon trough that typically forms in the western Pacific during the summer months. The depression is forecast to drift today in a general east-northeast to northeast direction followed by a turn slowly north-northeastward tonight. A motion toward the north-northwest is expected on Thursday. Afterward, a mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the southwestern U.S. should force the cyclone west-northwestward to westward on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the depression should remain just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico today and Thursday, and pass near or just south of the southern tip of Baja California Sur on Friday and Saturday. The official track forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is nudged toward the NOAA HFIP Corrected Consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 17.3N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 18.1N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 19.0N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 20.4N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 21.4N 108.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 22.2N 110.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 22.6N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z 22.6N 114.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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