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Tropical Depression Fay Public Advisory Number 7A
2020-07-11 07:32:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 121 WTNT31 KNHC 110532 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fay Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 200 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 ...FAY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.5N 74.0W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from East Rockaway New York to Watch Hill Rhode Island including most of Long Island and Long Island Sound has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was located near latitude 41.5 North, longitude 74.0 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected today and tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Fay will move across portions of eastern New York this morning, then across western New England into southeastern Canada later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected today, and the system is expected to become a post-tropical low later this morning and dissipate on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 4 inches along and near its track from eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey across southeast New York, and portions of New England. This rain may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time; however, rapid rises on small streams and isolated minor flooding is possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Fay Graphics
2020-07-11 07:32:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 05:32:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 03:24:54 GMT
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Tropical Depression Five-E Graphics
2020-07-06 22:40:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Jul 2020 20:40:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Jul 2020 21:31:59 GMT
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Tropical Depression Five-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-07-06 22:38:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 062038 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 100W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 55(59) 6(65) X(65) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 5(46) X(46) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) X(23) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 16(41) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-07-06 22:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 208 WTPZ45 KNHC 062038 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 Satellite imagery shows that deep convection associated with the low pressure area south of Mexico has become significantly better organized since this morning. ASCAT data from earlier this afternoon suggested that the circulation was still somewhat elongated, but since that time low cloud motions indicate that the circulation has become better defined. The scatterometer data also revealed believable wind vectors of at least 30 kt, with higher rain-inflated vectors within the deep convection. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on a 30-kt tropical depression at this time. The depression is located within a favorable environment consisting of low vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and a moist atmosphere. As a result, steady strengthening is anticipated over the next several days, and the NHC forecast calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane in about 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the intensity consensus aids IVCN and HCCA, but is not quite as bullish as the SHIPS guidance. Given the anticipated low wind shear conditions over the next few days, a period of rapid strengthening is possible, and this intensity forecast could be somewhat conservative. The cyclone is expected to move over cooler waters in about 96 hours, which should cause weakening by the end of the period. Since the depression is still in its formative stage, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/11 kt. The depression is being steered west-northwestward to the south of a large mid-level ridge located over the south-central United States. A general west-northwestward heading about around the same forward speed is expected over the next several days. The dynamical model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 10.5N 99.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 11.2N 101.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 12.1N 103.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 13.0N 105.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 14.1N 107.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 15.7N 110.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 17.2N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 18.8N 118.7W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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