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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-07-05 10:36:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050836 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 AM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 Convection has increased in association with Tropical Depression Five during the past several hours, with satellite imagery showing cooling cloud tops near the center and data from the radar on Bermuda indicating some banding. An earlier scatterometer overpass showed 25-30 kt winds to the southeast of the center, and so far sustained winds at the various automated stations on Bermuda have been in the 20-30 kt range. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion is now northeastward or 055/17. The cyclone should accelerate to the northeast or east-northeast over the next couple of days as it encounters the stronger mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, although the guidance has trended faster for this advisory. Based on this, the new forecast track is similar in direction, but faster than, the previous forecast. Some strengthening could occur today, and the forecast peak intensity of 35 kt is a little below the intensity consensus. The guidance now suggests that extratropical transition should occur by 36 h, and the the forecast has been adjusted to reflect that. It remains possible that the depression will open up into a trough later today, but for now this forecast maintains continuity with the previous one in maintaining the system as a cyclone. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds should persist on Bermuda for the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 33.3N 64.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 35.4N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 38.3N 56.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 41.4N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/0600Z 44.4N 43.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Five Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-07-05 10:36:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 050836 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 0900 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Five (AT5/AL052020)
2020-07-05 10:36:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING NORTH OF BERMUDA... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Jul 5 the center of Five was located near 33.3, -64.9 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Five Public Advisory Number 4
2020-07-05 10:36:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 050836 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 AM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 ...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING NORTH OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.3N 64.9W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 64.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move away from Bermuda this morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The depression could become a tropical storm today. However, the system is expected to lose tropical cyclone characteristics on Monday as it merges with a cold front. An automated weather station just northwest of Bermuda recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Depression Five is causing gusty winds on Bermuda and over the nearby waters this morning. The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Gale Warning. For more information please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. RAIN: Tropical Depression Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of less than 1 inch with possible isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches in Bermuda. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-07-05 10:36:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 050836 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 0900 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 64.9W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 64.9W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 65.8W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 35.4N 61.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 38.3N 56.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 41.4N 49.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 44.4N 43.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 64.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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