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Tropical Depression Five Public Advisory Number 6
2020-07-05 22:31:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 052031 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.8N 60.5W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five was located near latitude 35.8 North, longitude 60.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). A faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast but the depression could become a tropical storm tonight before it becomes post-tropical on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Five Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-07-05 22:31:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 052031 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 2100 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-07-05 22:30:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 052030 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 2100 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 60.5W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 60.5W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 61.9W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 37.9N 56.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 41.1N 48.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 44.5N 41.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 48.0N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.8N 60.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Five Graphics
2020-07-05 16:36:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Jul 2020 14:36:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Jul 2020 14:36:14 GMT
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-07-05 16:35:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 051434 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 AM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 The depression is accelerating northeastward, away from Bermuda. It continues to produce deep convection primarily to the south of its center with little change in organization since yesterday. The most recent TAFB Dvorak classification supports maintaining the intensity at 30 kt. Scatterometer data that will likely arrive after the issuance of this advisory may provide more information about the current surface wind structure of the cyclone. No substantial changes were made to the NHC forecast. The cyclone will continue to accelerate northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or two. It is possible that the depression could open into a trough at some point today as its forward speed increases, but most of the dynamical guidance indicates it will persist long enough to undergo extratropical transition on Monday. Minimal strengthening is possible today as the forward speed of the depression increases and it begins to get some positive baroclinic support. In fact, nearly all of the global models indicate that the system will produce tropical-storm-force winds around the time it becomes fully extratropical, and this is reflected in the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 34.5N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 36.6N 59.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 39.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 42.5N 46.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/1200Z 45.8N 39.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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