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Summary for Tropical Depression Six-E (EP1/EP062020)
2020-07-14 04:33:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION HEADING WEST FAR FROM LAND... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 the center of Six-E was located near 17.0, -114.4 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Six-E Public Advisory Number 2
2020-07-14 04:33:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 140233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020 900 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION HEADING WEST FAR FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 114.4W ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 114.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The system could become a tropical storm at any time during the next day or two, but substantial strengthening is not expected. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-07-14 04:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 140232 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062020 0300 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 114.4W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 114.4W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 113.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.2N 116.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N 119.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.9N 123.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.0N 126.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 114.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Six-E Graphics
2020-07-13 22:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Jul 2020 20:35:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Jul 2020 21:24:41 GMT
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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-07-13 22:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 719 WTPZ41 KNHC 132034 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020 300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 The small disturbance and intermittent low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for the past few days has finally developed a well-defined, closed surface circulation based on 1639Z ASCAT-B surface wind vector ambiguity data, and the system is thus being classified as Tropical Depression Six-E. Deep convection developed overnight and this morning, which helped to spin up a low-level center near and just inside of the northeastern portion of the convective cloud canopy. In addition, the forward speed has also decreased from 20 kt down to 14 kt, which has also likely helped to close off the circulation on the south side. The ASCAT scatterometer wind data data supported an intensity of at least 30 kt, and this is consistent with 18Z Dvorak satellite classifications of T2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is 270/14 kt based on conventional, microwave, and scatterometer satellite fix data over the past 12 hours. The small cyclone is expected to be steered generally westward at about the same forward speed for the next few days due to a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of the depression. By 96 h, the system is forecast to degenerate into an open wave. The NHC official forecast track lies close to the tightly packed simple consensus models, which is a just a little south of the NOAA corrected-consensus model, HCCA. The current northerly vertical wind shear of about 15 kt affecting the depression is forecast to decrease to below 10 kt in 12-18 hours, and remain that way until the 48-h period. This should allow for some slight strengthening to occur during the next 36 hours or so. By 48 hours and beyond, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures and the shear is forecast to become westerly to northwesterly at near 20 kt. The combination of these two negative factors should induce significant weakening of the small tropical cyclone, resulting in degeneration to a remnant low by 72 h and dissipation by 96 hours. The official intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 16.6N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 16.7N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.8N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 16.8N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 16.8N 124.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 16.6N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 16.5N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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