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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-07-05 04:36:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 050236 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 0300 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 66.3W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 66.3W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 67.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.0N 63.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 37.0N 59.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 39.7N 53.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.5N 47.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 66.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-07-04 22:31:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 042031 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 Overall, the depression's organization hasn't changed much since the last advisory. Cloud tops have warmed a little, but the overall pattern is the same, with deep convection limited to the south of the center. Late-arriving ASCAT-C data from earlier this morning showed max winds of 25-30 kt southeast of the depression's center, and is the primary basis for maintaining the 30 kt intensity. No changes of significance were made to the NHC track or intensity forecast. The official forecast is still based on the track and intensity consensus, with extra weight given to the dynamical models for the intensity. The depression is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward in the flow between a trough to its north and a ridge to its south. A combination of shear and dry air will likely prevent it from getting better organized, and no substantial strengthening is expected. By Monday morning, baroclinic forcing could allow the system to strengthen slightly before it undergoes extratropical transition or merges with a non-tropical weather system. Alternatively, the system could open into a trough on Sunday as its forward speed increases, as depicted by most of the global models. Since most of those models also show the low reforming a day later before it becomes extratropical, the NHC forecast carries the system as a continuous cyclone for the sake of simplicity. It should be stressed that the rain and gusty winds associated with the system as it passes near Bermuda overnight will be the same regardless of the state of its circulation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 31.8N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 33.1N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 35.3N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 38.3N 56.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 41.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 44.0N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Five Graphics
2020-07-04 22:31:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 04 Jul 2020 20:31:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 04 Jul 2020 20:31:14 GMT
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Tropical Depression Five Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-07-04 22:30:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 04 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 042030 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 2100 UTC SAT JUL 04 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Five (AT5/AL052020)
2020-07-04 22:30:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...FORECAST TO MOVE PAST BERMUDA OVERNIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Jul 4 the center of Five was located near 31.8, -67.3 with movement ENE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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