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Tropical Depression Five Graphics
2020-07-05 04:39:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Jul 2020 02:39:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Jul 2020 02:39:03 GMT
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-07-05 04:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050238 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 The depression remains poorly organized, with a shrinking area of deep convection to the south of the partially exposed center. The intensity remains 30 kt pending receipt of scatterometer data this evening, perhaps generously. The cyclone should accelerate to the east-northeast over the next couple of days as it encounters stronger mid-level flow. Track guidance is tightly clustered, and no significant changes were made to the previous forecast. After tonight's diurnal convective maximum period, the chances of the depression to strengthen are fairly low due to increasing shear and cooler waters. Thus only a slight increase in wind speed is forecast, similar to the model consensus. Extratropical transition is shown in a couple of days due to the system becoming embedded in a front and a mid-level trough. It is possible, however, that the depression will open up into a trough on Sunday, as suggested by the latest GFS model, but for now this forecast maintains continuity with the previous one. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds from the depression should start on Bermuda during the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 32.5N 66.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 34.0N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 37.0N 59.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 39.7N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 42.5N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Depression Five (AT5/AL052020)
2020-07-05 04:37:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO MOVE PAST BERMUDA OVERNIGHT... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Jul 4 the center of Five was located near 32.5, -66.3 with movement NE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Five Public Advisory Number 3
2020-07-05 04:37:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 050237 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO MOVE PAST BERMUDA OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 66.3W ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 66.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move to the north of Bermuda overnight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, although the system still could become a tropical storm during that time. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Depression Five could cause gusty conditions on Bermuda and over the nearby waters later tonight. The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Gale Warning. For more information please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. RAIN: Tropical Depression Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of less than 1 inch with possible isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches in Bermuda. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Five Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-07-05 04:37:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 050237 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 0300 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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