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Tropical Depression Four-E Graphics
2020-06-30 04:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 30 Jun 2020 02:34:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 30 Jun 2020 02:34:01 GMT
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-06-30 04:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300232 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042020 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020 The circulation associated with the area of low pressure located southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better defined over the past 24 hours, and the system has maintained convection for much of the past 12 hours. Although the convection has not been particularly well organized at times today, a new burst of convection developed just northeast of the low-level center late this afternoon and has been persistent over the past several hours. Based on these observations and Dvorak T-number of 1.5 from TAFB and 2.0 from SAB, the system is being designated as a 30-kt tropical depression. The system is expected to be a short- lived tropical cyclone as it will be moving into an area of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and over SSTs of around 24 degrees Celsius by Tuesday morning. As a result, the depression is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday. The NHC wind speed prediction follows the trend of the intensity guidance and also calls for the remnant low to dissipate in 2 to 3 days. The depression is moving slowly northwestward around the western portion of a mid-level ridge that extends westward over central Mexico. The cyclone should continue moving on the same general heading with some reduction in forward speed as it weakens and is steered by the weaker low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 20.5N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 21.1N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 21.4N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1200Z 21.6N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0000Z 21.8N 113.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-06-30 04:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 30 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 300232 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042020 0300 UTC TUE JUN 30 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Four-E (EP4/EP042020)
2020-06-30 04:32:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... ...EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 the center of Four-E was located near 20.5, -112.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-06-30 04:32:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 300232 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042020 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... ...EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 112.6W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 112.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected overnight. Weakening should begin on Tuesday, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low when it moves over cooler waters by Tuesday afternoon or evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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