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Tropical Depression Twenty-E Public Advisory Number 2
2019-11-15 09:44:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 150844 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 108.6W ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 108.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. A turn to the north-northeast is expected to occur by early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. Weakening is forecast to occur by Sunday, and the system is predicted to degenerate into a remnant low by late Sunday or early Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Twenty-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2019-11-15 09:43:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 150843 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 0900 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 108.6W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 108.6W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 108.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.4N 109.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 110.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.9N 110.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.9N 110.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.0N 109.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 108.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Twenty-E Graphics
2019-11-15 03:33:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2019 02:33:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2019 02:33:36 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-11-15 03:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150232 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2019 Satellite images indicate that the well-defined low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring well south of the Baja California peninsula has now developed sufficently organized deep convection to be classified a tropical depression, the twentieth one of the 2019 eastern North Pacific season. The depression is producing two areas of thunderstorms, one near and east of the low-level center, and the other in bands over the northeastern quadrant. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, based on a 2.0 Dvorak classification from SAB. The depression has a day or two to strengthen while it remains over warm waters, in relatively moist conditions, and in a low wind shear environment. In about 48 hours, however, a pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and progressively drier air should end the opportunity for strengthening and induce a weakening trend. The cyclone will likely become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days and dissipate shortly thereafter when it moves into an extremely hostile upper-level environment. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance and is in best agreement with the HCCA consensus model. The depression is moving slowly north-northwestward in the flow on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. A northwestward to north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster pace should occur during the next couple of days as the ridge strengthens and remains in place. After that time, a faster north-northeastward motion is expected as a large mid- to upper-level low digs to the west of the Baja California peninsula. Once the system becomes weak and shallow, a turn back to the left seems likely in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast follows the TVCE and HCCA consensus models and brings the remnants of the depression near the southern Baja California peninsula in about 4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 13.0N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 13.6N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 14.7N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 16.0N 110.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 17.4N 110.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 21.1N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 23.2N 109.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Twenty-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-11-15 03:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 150232 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 0300 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 1 21(22) 27(49) 2(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 15N 110W 50 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 22(26) 1(27) X(27) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 17(31) 1(32) X(32) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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