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Tropical Depression Priscilla Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-10-20 22:39:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 202039 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Priscilla Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Priscilla moved inland along the coast of southwestern Mexico around 1930 UTC just to the east of Manzanillo. The rugged terrain in that area is expected to cause the cyclone to rapidly weaken and dissipate by 12 hours, if not sooner. Satellite intensity estimates at 1800 UTC were T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and T2.7/37 kt and 38 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively, which supported an intensity of 35 kt at that time. However, the intensity has been decreased to 30 kt at the advisory time since Priscilla is now located inland, with most of the deep convection having been displaced well to the north of the low-level center. The initial motion estimate is 360/08 kt. Tropical Depression Priscilla will continue to move northward and farther inland over southwestern Mexico, resulting in rapid weakening and dissipation during the next 12 hours. A 12-hour forecast position was provided mainly for continuity purposes. The primary threat with Priscilla and its remnants will be heavy rainfall, along with the potential for flash flooding and mudslides, over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 19.1N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 21/0600Z 20.0N 104.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Priscilla (EP4/EP192019)
2019-10-20 22:37:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PRISCILLA MAKES LANDFALL EAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND WEAKENS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 the center of Priscilla was located near 19.1, -104.0 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Priscilla Public Advisory Number 3
2019-10-20 22:37:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 202037 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Priscilla Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 ...PRISCILLA MAKES LANDFALL EAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND WEAKENS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 104.0W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for southwestern Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of recently downgraded Tropical Depression Priscilla was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 104.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue through tonight until Priscilla dissipates inland over southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected now that Priscilla is inland over southwestern Mexico, and the small cyclone is expected to dissipate later tonight or early Monday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Priscilla and its remnants are expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan in southwestern Mexico through Tuesday night. This rainfall could produce flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Priscilla Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-10-20 22:37:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 202037 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019 2100 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MANZANILLO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Priscilla Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-10-20 22:37:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 202037 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019 2100 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 104.0W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 104.0W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 104.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 104.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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