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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Graphics
2019-11-16 09:50:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 08:50:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 08:50:58 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-11-16 09:50:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160849 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 400 AM CDT Sat Nov 16 2019 Deep convection associated with the small low pressure area located well south of the coast of Mexico has continued to increase and become better organized overnight. ASCAT data from 03-04Z indicated that the circulation was well-defined and there were believable 30 kt wind vectors. The ASCAT revealed a few higher wind vectors, but they may have been rain contaminated. Based on these data and a Dvorak T-number of 2.0 from TAFB, advisories are being initiated on a 30-kt tropical depression. The intensity forecast for this system is a bit tricky as small systems such as this can spin up or down quite quickly. In the short-term, a dry and more stable air from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event could be entrained into the northern portion of the circulation today, which could cause a disruption in the deep convection and/or an elongation of the circulation. However, if the small cyclone remains south of the main area of Tehuantepec winds, low vertical wind shear conditions favor some intensification. The NHC intensity forecast leans on the latter scenario and call for some strengthening during the next 24 hours or so. After that time, increasing southerly shear is expected to cause weakening, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The intensity is more uncertain than normal, but is fairly close to the intensity consensus aids. The depression is moving westward or 270/10 kt. The track forecast is a bit more straightforward as the cyclone should be steered generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge located over southern Mexico during the next couple of days. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to near the southwestern portion of the ridge and a west-northwestward heading is predicted. The global models are in fairly good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track follows a blend of the various global model predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 9.2N 99.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 9.0N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 8.9N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 9.0N 103.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 9.4N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 10.1N 106.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 10.5N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-11-16 09:46:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 353 FOPZ11 KNHC 160846 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019 0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 14(28) 1(29) X(29) 10N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 10N 100W 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E (EP1/EP212019)
2019-11-16 09:46:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Nov 16 the center of Twenty-one-E was located near 9.2, -99.2 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Public Advisory Number 1
2019-11-16 09:46:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 160846 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 400 AM CDT Sat Nov 16 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.2N 99.2W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 9.2 North, longitude 99.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west or west-southwestward motion is expected through Sunday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur Sunday night or early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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