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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Graphics
2019-10-20 10:46:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2019 08:46:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2019 09:24:24 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-10-20 10:45:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200845 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Microwave, geostationary satellite, and scatterometer data indicate that the small area of low pressure located near the southwestern coast of Mexico quickly became better defined during the evening hours, and deep convection has persisted and become better organized overnight. Multiple ASCAT passes revealed winds of at least 25-30 kt over the southern portion of the circulation, and based on these data, the system is being classified as a 30-kt tropical depression. The depression is moving northward or 355/6 kt. The global models indicate that the depression will move generally northward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico. This motion should bring the center of the cyclone inland over southwestern Mexico later today or early tonight. The NHC track forecast follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model fields. The depression is currently located over warm waters and within an area of moderate easterly shear. In fact, the center of the depression is currently located near the eastern edge of the convective mass. Due to the shear and the very short time the system is expected to remain over water, only slight strengthening is predicted. The depression, however, could become a short-lived tropical storm later today. Once inland, the cyclone should rapidly weaken and dissipate over the high terrain of southwestern Mexico. The primary threat with the cyclone will be heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 17.5N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 18.3N 104.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 19.6N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen-E (EP4/EP192019)
2019-10-20 10:44:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 the center of Nineteen-E was located near 17.5, -104.0 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2019-10-20 10:44:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 200844 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 104.0W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta San Telmo westward to Playa Perula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 104.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On this track, the center of the depression is forecast to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico within the warning area today, and move inland by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could become a tropical storm before it moves inland. Rapid weakening and dissipation is expected after landfall. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan in southwest Mexico through Tuesday night. This rainfall could produce flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within a portion of the warning area later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-10-20 10:44:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 200844 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019 0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P VALLARTA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MANZANILLO 34 9 18(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) MANZANILLO 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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