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Tropical Depression Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 9
2019-07-24 10:35:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 24 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240835 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 0900 UTC WED JUL 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.8W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.8W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 118.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.4N 119.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.1N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.8N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.2N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 118.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Three Graphics
2019-07-23 10:37:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Jul 2019 08:37:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Jul 2019 09:24:24 GMT
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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-07-23 10:36:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230836 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032019 500 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Although deep convection has redeveloped near and to the northeast of the low-level center, the overall convective appearance is somewhat ragged. However, curved rain bands have been evident in Doppler radar data from Miami and Melbourne since around 0300 UTC, and Doppler velocity values of 35-40 kt have been detected in those bands between 15,000-20,000 ft. In addition, three ships located about 50 nmi northeast and east of the center have reported 28-29 kt wind speeds. Although those wind reports were elevated at 30-60 meters above the surface, they were reported outside of the rain bands. Based on this wind speed and radar information, the initial intensity has been increased to 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the depression later this morning to provide a better estimate of the cyclone's intensity. The depression is now moving northward or 360/10 kt. There is essentially no change to the previous track or reasoning. The 06Z track model guidance continues to indicate that the cyclone will continue to move around western periphery of the sprawling Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge. A northward motion is expected through today, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed tonight. A northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday, which will keep the center and strongest winds away from the coast of the southeastern United States. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close to the various consensus models. Although significant strengthening of the depression is not expected, it is certainly possible that the cyclone could briefly reach tropical storm status in the 12-to-24-hour period when the system will be accelerating and the vertical wind shear decreases to less than 5 kt. However, in the event that the cyclone should become a tropical storm, the rapid northeastward motion will act to keep the strongest winds to the east of the center, well offshore of the U.S. coastal areas. By Wednesday afternoon, the combination of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and interaction with an approaching cold front is expected to result in rapid weakening and dissipation of the cyclone. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and shows dissipation by 36 hours. Direct impacts from the depression are expected to be limited to 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across the Bahamas today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 27.0N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 29.6N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 34.0N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Three (AT3/AL032019)
2019-07-23 10:36:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 the center of Three was located near 27.0, -79.5 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 3
2019-07-23 10:36:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 230836 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032019 500 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 ...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 79.5W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM ENE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in the Northwest Bahamas and the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 79.5 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue through this afternoon. A motion toward north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should remain offshore the coast of the southeastern United States through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant increase in strength is anticipated, and the depression is forecast to dissipate on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Bahamas through today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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