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Tropical Depression Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-07-23 10:36:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 230836 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032019 0900 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-07-23 10:34:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 230834 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032019 0900 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019 INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 79.5W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 79.5W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 79.5W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.6N 79.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 34.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 79.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-07-23 04:36:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230236 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 This evening's visible satellite presentation consists of a rather ragged and shapeless cloud pattern with multiple cloud swirls seen rotating around the mean surface circulation center. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain unchanged (T2.0/30 kt) as well as the initial intensity. There are no changes to the forecast intensity philosophy. Both the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS indicate that the northerly shear currently impinging on the northeastern portion of the system will persist through the forecast period. This inhibiting wind pattern along with cooler oceanic surface temperatures, ahead of the predicted track, should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low in 48 hours with dissipation in 4 days or less. The only model that shows strengthening to tropical storm status is the COAMPS-TC. For continuity purposes, I've elected to maintain this slight 12-24 hour intensification period in the official forecast. Because of the ill-defined circulation, the initial motion is estimated to be a bit uncertain north-northwestward, or 345/7 kt, within the low- to mid-level steering flow produced by high pressure located over the southwestern United States. The depression should continue moving in a general northwestward direction toward a break in the ridge to the northwest of the cyclone during the next 2 days. Afterward, as the system begins to weaken, a turn toward the west-northwest, within the tradewind flow, is anticipated. The model guidance is tightly clustered with the exception being the left outlier UKMET. The only adjustment in the NHC forecast is, again, a shift slightly to the left of the previous advisory, but follows both the TVCE and HCCA consensus models closely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 17.6N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 18.5N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 19.6N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 20.5N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 21.2N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z 22.5N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Five-E Graphics
2019-07-23 04:35:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Jul 2019 02:35:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Jul 2019 02:35:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression Five-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-07-23 04:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 230234 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 0300 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
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